Some three weeks ago at the San Siro, Milan pulled off the unthinkable; Milan pulled out a 2-0 win against Barcelona in the first leg of the Champions League round of 16. Barcelona could not break through the Milan defense and Lionel Messi was nearly non existent. Messi just isn’t Messi against Italian teams, but we’ll get to that in a second. The picture shifts to the Camp Nou in Barcelona tomorrow and the soccer world will be watching these two giants. I could write about this game for days and still not cover all of the details. Here are 5 key factors heading into tomorrow’s matchup.
1.) Will Lionel Messi show up?
In the first leg the best player in the world was non existent. In 90 minutes he registered 0, yes ZERO shots on target. To make matters worse he managed just 2 touches inside the penalty area. This was by far Messi’s worst performance and almost anyone could top it. If Messi is allowed space and is able to link passes with Xavi and Iniesta in or around the Milan 18 yard box, Milan could be in trouble.
2.) Barcelona’s Confidence
The month of February is a month that Barca wants to forget. They lost to Milan and then lost to their bitter rivals Real Madrid twice in the same week. Xavi, Dani Alves, and Andres Iniesta have spoken to the press in the last two weeks and “guaranteed” victory. Could this just be Barca’s way of masking their lack of confidence?
3.) The Camp Nou
Much like the San Siro it is a footballing Mecca. The stadium holds over 100,000 fans and is one of the most intimidating in the world. The Camp Nou is the definition of home field advantage.
4.) Milan’s Youth
This will benefit and hurt Milan at the same time. The benefit: they are such a young team with the likes of El Shaarawy, De Scilgio, and Niang who could all feature in the starting line-up tomorrow. The downside: none of these three have played in an atmosphere like the Camp Nou. El Shaarawy already has the weight of the world on his shoulders. He has been out of form of late, with just one goal since January 1st against Atalanta. And he is expected to be the goal scoring threat as Giampaolo Pazzini has been ruled out with an injury. If Milan’s youngsters get rattled it could be a recipe for disaster.
5.) The Line-ups
Barcelona’s will be no surprise. The usually Victor Valdes in goal. Alves, Puyol, Pique, and Jordi Alba from right to left in the defense. Fabregas, Xavi, and Busquets will round out the midfield. Messi, Iniesta, and either Sanchez or Pedro will be the three up front to start tomorrow.
Milan’s is not so obvious. They will most likely play a 4-3-3 formation and here are my predictions. Abbiatti in net. Abate, Mexes, Zapata, and Constant from right to left. This has emerged as the go to defense for Allegri.
Ambrosini, Muntari, and Montolivio will be the most likely midfield trio. Montolivo has been in form of late and he and Ambrosini are loaded with experience. Muntari will be the most physical player in Milan’s midfield. I foresee Muntari being subbed off in the 60th minute for Italian international Antonio Nocerino.
Here’s where it gets tricky. Milan’s three upfront. No Pazzini or Mario Balotelli as Pazzini is injured and Balotelli is cup-tied. El Shaarawy will be on the left wing, Mbaye Niang will play the striker role, and Kevin-Prince Boateng will play on the right. I’m making a bold prediction with this one. Niang much like El Shaarawy is not just offensive minded, he backtracks and plays defense so well I could see why Allegri would want him in the starting 11. This will be a defensive game for Milan and with the speed of these three upfront. The counter attack will be Milan’s only source of attack.
Being an AC Milan supporter tomorrow will be one nerve wracking match. My personal prediction is Milan will lose 3-1, but will advance through on aggregate with an advantage of away goals. Niang will get his first goal for the Rossoneri tomorrow and it will be one he will not forget. Those are my predictions. Watch tomorrow at 3:30 on Fox Soccer to watch a match for the ages!
Forza Milan!!!
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